Earlier this week at the EORTC meeting, Clovis provided an update on rociletinib (CO-1686) and rucaparib. Not only do the data prove that both drugs are highly efficacious in the relevant patient populations, they also provide key distinguishing factors (safety profile and patient selection) relatively to competing programs. The negative market reaction exemplifies the discrepancy between the progress Clovis is making and its stock behavior. Continue reading
There was a lot of activity in my coverage universe in the last two weeks, including positive data readouts for three companies and an acquisition announcement. However, of the four cases, only two resulted in share appreciation.
Ambit – To keep or not to keep (the CVR)
Two weeks ago, Ambit (AMBI) agreed to be acquired by Daiichi Sankyo in a deal that included a $15 upfront payment and $4.5 in Contingent Value Right (CVR) per share. The CVR represents a milestone-like mechanism in which Ambit’s shareholders may eventually get additional payments equal to 30% of the initial purchase price. Continue reading
AML (Acute myeloid leukemia) remains one of the few blood cancers in which no progress has been made for decades. This is in contrast to other blood cancers where novel treatments have turned fatal conditions into chronic diseases with long term remissions. Prominent examples are CML, which today has a low mortality rate and multiple myeloma where median survival is approaching 8 years and counting. The recent launch of Imbruvica and Gazyva followed by the anticipated approval of ABT-199 is expected to have a similar impact on CLL as well as on certain subtypes of B cell lymphoma. Continue reading
The recent pullback in the biotech sector hit the vast majority of small/mid cap biotechs. As a group, it is hard to argue biotech stocks are cheap right now but some stocks are becoming attractive after losing 30-50% in several months. Below are 6 companies that are approaching or already are at attractive valuations. A key theme for all 6 is that they have been sold off alongside the general market rather than for fundamental reasons. Market fluctuations in 2014 may present investors with attractive entry points. Continue reading
Seattle Genetics (+65% in 2013)
In 2013, Seattle Genetics’ (SGEN) Adcetris reached market saturation in its approved labeling (relapsed/refractory HL), shifting market attention to label expansion. These include DLBCL, where Adcetris showed impressive efficacy in highly refractory patients (42% response rate, PFS of 5 months) and CTCL (73% response rate). Adcetris is in phase III for earlier stages of HL as well as CTCL, which are viewed as the next opportunity to grow sales. The company will outline its registration strategy for DLBCL in early 2014. Continue reading
The annual ASH (American society of hematology) meeting will take place next month in New Orleans. Based on the abstracts that were released 2 weeks ago, it seems that after 2 phenomenal years of introducing novel mechanisms, this year’s meeting is going to be more on the evolving landscape in each segment (Btk/PI3K inhibitors, antibody drug conjugates, myelofibrosis, CD38 antibodies, chimeric antigen receptors etc.).
Below are my top picks. Continue reading
2013 will be remembered as one of the strongest years for biotech IPOs, with over 30 successful offerings year to date. A lot has been written on the biotech IPO boom and what will be the long term consequences. My personal view is ambiguous. On the one hand, most if not all of the companies that went public are “IPO worthy”: They are innovative, address medical unmet needs and are run by capable management teams. On the other, I find it extremely hard to justify the valuations of many of the companies. What is even more frustrating is the fact that the ones with the most exciting technologies and belong to my coverage universe are also the most ridiculously priced. Agios (AGIO), Oncomed (OMED), Blue Bird (BLUE) and Epizyme (EPZM) are all good examples for great companies whose stocks are way too expensive. Continue reading