Following the failure of ArQule’s (ARQL) tivantinib in lung cancer, market attention shifted to the ongoing phase III in liver cancer. With a $173 market cap and $130M in cash, the market ascribes little value to tivantinib. In addition, the market completely ignores 2 additional clinical programs (both in phase I): ARQ092 is an Akt inhibitor that was developed with Daiichi Sankyo (Daiichi recently returned rights to ArQule) and ARQ087 is an FGFR inhibitor. Continue reading
In the last post of the year, I will try to provide a status update as well as key 2013 milestones for the stocks in our portfolio. I would like to use this opportunity to wish everybody happy holidays and a happy New Year.
Seattle Genetics’ (SGEN) main task is expanding Adcetris’ use outside of approved niche indications (Hodgkin’s Lymphoma and ALCL). As an anti-CD30 antibody-drug conjugate (ADC), Adcetris has potential utility wherever CD30 is expressed by tumors. Continue reading
The American Society of Hematology’s (ASH) annual meeting is the most important event in the field of hematology. Although blood cancers represent the minority of cancer cases, the field is garnering a lot of attention thanks to great advancements over the past decade which translated to huge commercial success stories. This year’s meeting, scheduled for next month, will include important data for the following companies.
So what does the market really think about Synta’s (SNTA) lung cancer data? 2 weeks ago, the stock lost 33% in 1 trading session following interim results from the phase II trial for the company’s lead agent, ganetespib. Since then, Synta regained most of the fall, as the market digested the data with the help of supporting analysts from Jefferies and Roth Capital.
Looking at the clinical results, it is easy to understand the market’s bi-polar reaction. One the one hand, there are multiple promising efficacy signals and a good safety profile. On the other, the data set was less mature than what investors had expected.
BMS’ PD-1 antibody – As good as it gets
The biggest news at this year’s ASCO came from BMS’ (BMY) PD-1 antibody, BMS-936558. This antibody belongs to a new class of antibodies that stimulate patients’ immune system to attack cancer. This approach has been recently validated with another BMS antibody, Yervoy, which was approved last year for melanoma.
Based on results presented at the meeting, BMS-936558 is superior to Yervoy by any measure. In fact, it is probably one of the most promising oncology drugs ever to be tested in humans. It induces tumor shrinkage in a substantial portion of patients, creates an immune response that keeps the disease under control for long periods and it does so with limited side effects. To make things even better, there might be a way to pre-select patients who are more likely to respond to this agent. Continue reading
Below is a list of drugs and companies which will have meaningful data at this year’s annual meeting of American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO). As I will be attending this year’s conference, I will try to write updates on a regular basis. Feel free to send me questions or post them as comments to this post. Continue reading
Last month, Threshold Pharmaceuticals (THLD) surprised the market with positive data for its lead program (TH-302) in pancreatic cancer. Although actual results were not published and despite several issues with the trial design, TH-302 generated what is possibly the best pancreatic cancer data set in over a decade. Continue reading
Exelixis – More than a prostate cancer drug
Exelixis (EXEL) is starting to recuperate after last year’s clash with the FDA regarding a registration trial for its lead agent, cabozantinib (cabo), in prostate cancer. The company, which still sticks to its original plan of conducting a phase III trial using pain as a primary endpoint, is expected to announce it has enrolled the first patient in the study in the coming weeks. The trial will enroll 250 patients with bone metastases who are suffering from cancer associated pain and will evaluate cabo’s effect on bone scans and pain. Continue reading
Immunogen becomes a $1B company
Immunogen (IMGN) concluded the week with a market cap of ~$1B, up 200% in less than a year. This valuation is quite unusual for a company that ascribes the vast majority of its value from a 3-5% royalty stake in a single drug – Roche’s T-DM1. T-DM1, which utilizes Immunogen’s antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) technology, comprises of Herceptin conjugated to a drug payload. It is in two phase III trials and multiple phase II studies in breast cancer. If proven effective, many believe T-DM1 will eventually replace Herceptin, at least in certain treatment lines.
Array’s (ARRY) shares keep on fluctuating in the $2.5-$3.5 range, relatively unchanged from the beginning of 2010. It seems that the market is having trouble assessing the real value of the company and its pipeline, which includes 13 (!) drugs in clinical trials. With a market cap of ~$170M, the market puts an average price tag of $13M per asset, a ridiculously low valuation (assuming no value is assigned to the company’s discovery platform). The company’s long term debt (due in 2014) could be partially blamed for this anomaly, but the problem seems to be more related to the company’s business model. The good news is that during the next year the company is looking at multiple events that might change the way Wall Street views Array. Continue reading