Exelixis (EXEL) continues to look very strong after hitting a 15-year high on Friday, which is never a bad point in time to realize some gains. While I still view Cabometyx as the most effective agent ever approved in renal cancer (even better than Opdivo), a valuation of $5.1B seems to fully capture the current label. Continue reading →
After a two-month break here is a recap of key highlights from the September/October time frame. On the menu today: PD-1 controversies at ESMO 2016, Exelixis’ (EXEL) launch in renal cancer, gene therapy data from Abeona (ABEO), long awaited update from Esperion (ESPR) and a positive surprise from Seattle Genetics (SGEN).
ESMO 2016 – Merck wins by a landslide (for now…)
While ESMO is typically secondary in importance to ASCO, this year’s meeting overshadowed its US counterpart (which was relatively quiet to begin with…), generating big headlines in the PD-1 arena. Continue reading →
After a long summer break it is time to review recent events and update the portfolio. As far as clinical readouts go, my portfolio had a brutal summer with one complete P3 failure from Array Biopharma (ARRY), a mixed data set from Aurinia (AUPH) and a win from SAGE (SAGE) that resulted in limited share appreciation. This was offset by strong performance from Exelixis (EXEL), my biggest holding which is up 48% quarter to date.
For the remainder of 2016 I plan to gradually increase exposure to gene therapy, which I hope will become one of the industry’s primary growth drivers in the coming years. In parallel, as I am still pessimistic about the biotech field in general (R&D productivity, pricing, biosimilars…), I intend to keep my short ETFs and a significant cash position. Continue reading →
Despite bouncing off a 2-year low, biotech is still an unpopular sector and investors are rightfully concerned about its near-term prospects. Recent drug failures, growing pricing pressure and the potential impact of biosimilars all contribute to the negative sentiment, but the main problem is the lack of growth drivers for the remainder of 2016 (and potentially 2017). Continue reading →
After last week’s pessimistic post, this week I am focusing on potential catalysts in 2016 that could improve sentiment towards biotech as a sector.
As if to remind us late stage trials don’t always fail, last week saw positive news from three different programs, all of which are antibodies in non-oncology indications. Regeneron (REGN) and its partner Sanofi (SNY) announced excellent data in atopic dermatitis, Alder (ALDR) reported positive results in a P2b in migraine and Pfizer (PFE) had positive P3 data for its PCSK9 program.
Below are four additional clinical data readouts that (if positive) may serve as important catalysts. Continue reading →
As if sentiment around Smid-cap biotechs wasn’t bad enough, Q1 provided a painful reminder of the high failure rate in biotech. The slew of disappointing results at ASH in December 2015 (which I discussed here) was followed by numerous clinical failures and regulatory setbacks. Most notable blowups came from Celldex (CLDX), Incyte (INCY), Alkermes (ALKS), Oncomed (OMED), Chimerix (CMRX), Atara (ATRA), PTC (PTCT) and Portola (PTLA). Continue reading →