The past six months have been quite frustrating for Exelixis (EXEL) investors (myself included). The company had a string of positive announcements for cabozantinib (cabo) and Roche-partnered cobimetinib (Cotellic) including positive overall survival readouts for both drugs. Since the July announcement on the METEOR study in renal cancer, the stock is up only 16% despite having a wholly owned drug with a blockbuster potential, imminent approval and significant label expansion potential. Continue reading
After 5 years of a raging bull market, more than 140 IPOs and tens of billions in proceeds, there is a debate on whether the violent selloff in biotech stocks is a hiccup or the beginning of a real correction. I have no idea where the sector is heading in the coming weeks but it seems like the overall sobering experience coupled with this month’s selloff changed Wall Street’s perception around biotech. Investors are finally realizing drug development is fraught with uncertainty and that biotech is an attractive but not infallible segment, which is why I expect the correction to continue in 2016. Continue reading
The biotech sector is currently in the most successful period in its history based on valuation metrics, amount of money raised and number of IPOs. The perception around the current situation ranges from very bearish (it’s a bubble) to very bullish (there’s enough innovation to fuel future growth).
Before providing my take (which is very subjective and is as good as anybody else’s for that matter), there are two things most investors agree on:
1 – The biopharma industry enjoyed a massive wave of innovation in the form of revolutionary drugs that truly make a difference for patients. These include PD-1 antibodies, curative HCV drugs and PCSK9 antibodies just to name a few. Fundamentally, our understanding around diseases and our abilities to modulate them has never been better, which should dramatically increase success rates in the long run.
2 – The biotech sector has had a huge run in the past ~3 years. Since the beginning of 2012, the primary biotech indices on NASDAQ and NYSE are up 250%-260%. This means that in 3.5 years, the biotech industry (which was already quite established at the time) saw its valuation more than triple. Continue reading