Predicting future sales for a given drug is always challenging, let alone in a case like Incyte’s (INCY) Jakafi (Marketed in Europe under the name Jakavi by Novartis), which is the first drug in history to receive approval for myelofibrosis (MF). With no precedents to serve as a benchmark, it is still unclear how big Jakafi can be. However, based on Incyte’s recent 2013 guidance and remarks from the head of Novartis’ (NVS) oncology business unit, it has a high likelihood to reach $1B already in 2016. Continue reading →
This year’s meeting will probably be remembered as a historical event with regards to melanoma. Last year, it was a phase III trial for BMS’ (BMY) Yervoy (ipilimumab), which was the first in history to show a survival benefit in advanced melanoma patients (discussed in my ASCO 2010 write up). This trial led to Yervoy’s historical approval 3 months ago.
This year, investigators will present studies evaluating Yervoy as well as Plexxikon/Roche’s vemurafenib in pretreated melanoma patients. Yervoy was evaluated in combination with chemotherapy while vemurafenib was compared with chemotherapy. According to BMS’ and Roche’s press releases, both studies were successful and each drug led to a survival benefit.The extent of this benefit is still unknown and will be revealed only at the conference. Continue reading →
Array’s (ARRY) shares keep on fluctuating in the $2.5-$3.5 range, relatively unchanged from the beginning of 2010. It seems that the market is having trouble assessing the real value of the company and its pipeline, which includes 13 (!) drugs in clinical trials. With a market cap of ~$170M, the market puts an average price tag of $13M per asset, a ridiculously low valuation (assuming no value is assigned to the company’s discovery platform). The company’s long term debt (due in 2014) could be partially blamed for this anomaly, but the problem seems to be more related to the company’s business model. The good news is that during the next year the company is looking at multiple events that might change the way Wall Street views Array. Continue reading →
On top its JAK programs, Incyte has been developing two additional programs it intends to out-license. The first program is INCB13739 for diabetes, which already reached clinical proof of concept and could be licensed imminently. The second program, INCB7839 for breast cancer, is less advanced but could become very interesting later this year depending on data from an ongoing trial.
This year’s ASCO was packed with promising early stage trials, but very few positive late stage trials with an impact on medical practice. The two most important practice changing trials were phase III studies for Eli Lilly’s (LLY) Alimta and Roche’s (RHHBY.PK) Herceptin. These drugs are likely to enjoy a boost in revenues starting from next year, as both demonstrated impressive survival prolongation in lung and gastric cancer patients, respectively. The studies also underscore the paradigm shift in the industry towards personalized medicine, where a drug is given only to patients who have a high likelihood of deriving benefit. This article will focus on Alimta, which was, in my opinion the winner of ASCO 2009.Continue reading →