Q1 2016 scorecard – Arrested Development

As if sentiment around Smid-cap biotechs wasn’t bad enough, Q1 provided a painful reminder of the high failure rate in biotech. The slew of disappointing results at ASH in December 2015 (which I discussed here) was followed by numerous clinical failures and regulatory setbacks. Most notable blowups came from Celldex (CLDX), Incyte (INCY), Alkermes (ALKS), Oncomed (OMED), Chimerix (CMRX), Atara (ATRA), PTC (PTCT) and Portola (PTLA). Continue reading

Biotech portfolio update – 2014 summary and 2015 preview

Below is my traditional end of the year summary and a recap of catalysts for 2015. As always, I did my best to cover the most important events, let me know if I missed anything… I would like to use this opportunity and wish the readers of this blog a happy and prosperous new year.

Ohad Continue reading

Epizyme – The dark side of the biotech IPO bubble

On a standalone basis, phase I results presented by Epizyme (EPZM) for its lead program, EPZ-5676, were not as negative as market reaction implies. The company was able to dose escalate through several cohorts without serious side effects, demonstrate target modulation in humans and show mild signs of efficacy. For a typical biotech company, that would be considered a reasonable phase I data package, given the possibility to explore higher potentially more efficacious doses. Unfortunately, an early stage biotech company with a market cap of ~$1B based purely on preclinical results and hype is anything but typical. Continue reading

2 affordable biotech IPOs – Ambit and Esperion

2013 will be remembered as one of the strongest years for biotech IPOs, with over 30 successful offerings year to date. A lot has been written on the biotech IPO boom and what will be the long term consequences. My personal view is ambiguous. On the one hand, most if not all of the companies that went public are “IPO worthy”: They are innovative, address medical unmet needs and are run by capable management teams. On the other, I find it extremely hard to justify the valuations of many of the companies. What is even more frustrating is the fact that the ones with the most exciting technologies and belong to my coverage universe are also the most ridiculously priced. Agios (AGIO), Oncomed (OMED), Blue Bird (BLUE) and Epizyme (EPZM) are all good examples for great companies whose stocks are way too expensive. Continue reading