Biotech portfolio updates – Esperion, Trevena, Exelixis and ArQule

Esperion – Positive read-through from Repatha

Shares of Esperion (ESPR) doubled within two weeks after Amgen (AMGN) announced positive CVOT (cardiovascular outcomes trial) outcome for Repatha, Amgen’s PCSK9 antibody. Although this news will make the lipid-lowering field more competitive for Esperion, it also validates the LDL hypothesis and removes some regulatory risk around Esperion’s LDL-lowering pill, bempedoic acid (ETC-1002).

Until now, investors assumed Esperion will need to have CVOT data in order to file for approval but now the likelihood of FDA approval based on positive LDL readout in 2019 is much higher. Beyond regulatory uncertainties, investors’ primary concern revolves around whether an oral drug with a 25% LDL reduction has room in a market dominated by generic oral drugs (statins, Zetia) on the one hand, and branded highly effective (50%-60% LDL reduction) PCSK9 antibodies on the other. Continue reading

Trevena – Late stage innovation flying under the radar

Post-surgical pain is not the first indication people think about in the context of innovative drugs. From an investor standpoint, pain in the acute care setting is perceived as a temporary, symptomatic hospital-related issue with a poor value proposition. Some may even claim the unmet need is limited given available treatments (especially opioids). This is demonstrated by Trevena’s (TRVN) modest market cap ($264M) despite a positive clinical signal, an ongoing phase 2b and a potential FDA approval within three years. Continue reading