After a long summer break it is time to review recent events and update the portfolio. As far as clinical readouts go, my portfolio had a brutal summer with one complete P3 failure from Array Biopharma (ARRY), a mixed data set from Aurinia (AUPH) and a win from SAGE (SAGE) that resulted in limited share appreciation. This was offset by strong performance from Exelixis (EXEL), my biggest holding which is up 48% quarter to date.
For the remainder of 2016 I plan to gradually increase exposure to gene therapy, which I hope will become one of the industry’s primary growth drivers in the coming years. In parallel, as I am still pessimistic about the biotech field in general (R&D productivity, pricing, biosimilars…), I intend to keep my short ETFs and a significant cash position. Continue reading →
Despite bouncing off a 2-year low, biotech is still an unpopular sector and investors are rightfully concerned about its near-term prospects. Recent drug failures, growing pricing pressure and the potential impact of biosimilars all contribute to the negative sentiment, but the main problem is the lack of growth drivers for the remainder of 2016 (and potentially 2017). Continue reading →
After 5 years of a raging bull market, more than 140 IPOs and tens of billions in proceeds, there is a debate on whether the violent selloff in biotech stocks is a hiccup or the beginning of a real correction. I have no idea where the sector is heading in the coming weeks but it seems like the overall sobering experience coupled with this month’s selloff changed Wall Street’s perception around biotech. Investors are finally realizing drug development is fraught with uncertainty and that biotech is an attractive but not infallible segment, which is why I expect the correction to continue in 2016. Continue reading →
A new lucrative indication for Sage (and potentially Marinus)
Last week, Sage (SAGE) surprised the market by announcing preliminary but impressive results for SAGE-547 in patients with postpartum depression (PPD, also known as postnatal depression). Four patients with severe PPD experienced a dramatic improvement in their depression score from an average of 26.5 to 1.8. In other words, these patients entered the study with a severe debilitating depression and became symptom-free within 2-3 days. Despite the preliminary nature of the results, they generated a clear efficacy signal that merits evaluating SAGE-547 in a randomized trial, to be started later this year. Continue reading →
CNS is probably the toughest segment in the drug industry with a frustratingly low success rate and a diminishing pipeline. This is best exemplified by the disproportionally low number of CNS programs that received Breakthrough Therapy Designation (BTD). Of almost 70 designations, only three (J&J’s esketamine, Neurocrine’s NBI-98854 and Acadia’s pimavanserin) were for CNS indications and all three are hardly as exciting as other BTD drugs (anti-PD-1, CARs, Harvoni etc.). Not surprisingly, there are very few “hot” CNS-related stocks. Continue reading →
Below is my traditional end of the year summary and a recap of catalysts for 2015. As always, I did my best to cover the most important events, let me know if I missed anything… I would like to use this opportunity and wish the readers of this blog a happy and prosperous new year.