Taking a break…

Hi everybody,

My current day job is becoming more and more oriented towards the public markets, which has the potential to create conflicts and significantly limits my ability to discuss publicly traded companies. Given this situation I decided to take a break from publishing on this site. As you may guess, this wasn’t an easy decision… this blog and its readers have been a significant part of my life for over a decade but it is the inevitable one given the circumstances. I am very grateful and feel fortunate to have had the opportunity to interact with all of you. I am going to miss it.

Take care,

Ohad

67 thoughts on “Taking a break…

  1. Ohad

    Thank you for all you have provided over the years. Your insight was invaluable in navigating the treacherous waters of biotech investing. I wish you the best of luck moving forward!!!

    Dave

  2. Ohad,

    Thank you very much all your effort and time throughout the years that you shared with us. Your blog and comments will be missed.

    I would also like to thank the community of commenters. It was always such a positive and helpful experience from everyone involved. I find it is hard to find these types of experiences much on the internet so I appreciate it. Thank you!

    Best of luck to you Ohad.

    Adam

  3. Ohad….Very grateful as well. Thank you for your time and insight. You will be missed!

  4. Hello Ohad, many thanks for your helpful biotech blog and the many valuable comments… unfortunately I jumped a little bit late on the Ohad train :) I wish you much success in your future private and professional life, Paul

  5. Hello Ohad,

    Very thankful for what I learned from you!

    All the best to you and your family.

    Many greetings
    Christian

    PS: I hope it is really only a break 😉

  6. What a sad news! You are simply the best, the most thoughtful man in this industry. Pontifax is so lucky to have you on board… I was looking forward for every new post, also your answers were invaluable… Thank you very much Ohad for everything and wish you the best! Your insights will be greatly missed…

  7. Ohad,
    Thank you for your insightful reviews. Regardless of whether they prompted stock trading and the potential monetary gains, they were concise, objective reviews that set in place fundamentals I’ll utilize going forward.
    Best of luck.
    Send out an email notice if you can if your future allows you to blog about the Future Breakthroughs you deem significant.

  8. Hi Ohad,

    thank you for all your insights in the past years. Hopefully we see a reactivation of this blog in the future! :)
    Stay healthy and good luck for all your upcoming projects!

    Regards from Germany
    Thomas

  9. Thank you Ohad!!! You have always been a class act! Completely respect your decision and wish you well! Definitely would not be where I am financially without you. Best to you! Peter

  10. Many thanks Ohad for your insigthfull generosity! I have never found anything as informative as your blog. We will miss you but wishing you the best! Take care Ohad!
    Merci!

  11. Hey Ohad, thanks for everything you did! You really helped me a lot. Best wishes!!

  12. Thanks for all the years of sharing with us your valuable knowledge and insight
    It’s irreplaceable. Many of us on this board made a sizable fortune thanks to you. Our gratitude. TODA

  13. Hello Ohad,
    How sad… your blog was like a holy grail !
    Please, please, please tell us if you can recommend any other analyst- free, or for pay… so that we can continue our search for best in class or first in class, and evolving and new technologies in biotech and other fields.
    We look forward always in our search for discovery.
    Thank you for everything that you have made possible.
    Lawrence

  14. Hi Ohad … good luck in the future … I’ll certainly follow Pontifax’s investments in the future … while not a guarantee of success, if Pontifax likes it it certainly means that somebody, perhaps yourself, looked at it pretty carefully … along with many others I want to thank you for sharing your knowledge … best wishes, Mike Iles

  15. Hi Ohad,
    I also want to thank you, this blog really taught me a lot!

    All the best,
    Lasse (Denmark)

    PS. Now that Ohad is not around any longer to give advice, insights etc., can anyone recommend any good foras, blogs or anything else about biotech stocks?

  16. I have been following you since your first article published in the fall of 2008 at Seeking Alpha. Really enjoyed your unique insight that was also objective. I haven’t invested in your portfolio in a while, however, your articles were always interesting and informative in biotech. They all were worth reading. I know there is no other Ohad Hammer…lol…but are there any other respectable and objective writers on biotech? Is there any one last biotech that you believe that is relatively safe, small cap, and has HUGE potential that you can share where you dont have to explain why? In any case…wish you continued success:)

  17. Hi Ohad,

    Very thankful for your generosity and insight over the last few years. Kind of at a loss as to what to do with the stocks in the model portfolio. Hopefully things will work out as you had previously remarked.

    Wish you more success in your future!

    Anna

  18. Dear Ohad,

    I am really sad. I had to take a deep breath at first. No more daily visits of your blog, no more „Ohad says…“ to my wife when explaining investment decisions, no more „I need immediate silence, Ohad wrote something“ to the kids, no longer the pleasant sense of security and confidence of doing it right equally whether stocks move up or down. To me, you and your blog are very special. I will never forget who I owe my greatest thanks for some family wealth, that gave new opportunities. THANK YOU!!

    My family and I will really miss you and „Ohad says…“. I will keep on hoping that you come back!

    Marc from Germany

  19. Hi Ohad,

    This is very sad ….
    Thank you very much for everything you’ve done in the past decade.
    I wish you and your family all the best!
    I really hope you are just taking a break and one day I will see you “I am back, everybody “
    You and this blog will be very much missed.

  20. Dear Ohad,

    Please accept my heartfelt thanks and admiration for your amazing analysis and insights that you have so generously shared with readers such as myself. I have learned a lot from you and am grateful for the outstanding recommendations you have shared over the years. I will greatly miss you and wish you the very best.

    Best wishes, and thank you again!
    Debra

  21. Ohad,

    Thanks for your generosity and willingness to take the time to share your great ideas over the past 10+ years! Much success and best wishes to you and your family!

    Steve

  22. OH NO!

    this can’t be!
    please Ohad, i’m begging on my knees!!
    you’ve been wonderful and i follow you
    on tweeter as well.
    please tweet more.
    i’m forever grateful for the knowledge you shared.
    Rolando

  23. Long time lurker first time commentor.
    Just a note to say thanks for the blog.
    Wishing you every success in your career!

  24. Best of health and fortune to you Ohad and many thanks for your
    unselfish sharing.

    Gene Mc

  25. To all the good people here following Mr. Hammer for quite some time, I do hope we can continue exchange of ideas regarding Biotech stocks.

    I’ve gotten back to biotech investing since I discovered this blog in Dec. 2017 and have instantly made good profits by just buying his recommendations, sometimes immediately after release.

    I’ve also picked up some by Bio-Tweeters that I follow and that these little obscure companies have recently gone up in value after some great press release. Examples are AUPH, TGTX, BPMC, ZLAB, MGTA and BEAM.

    Ohad has been very careful not to recommend any of the Gene Editing companies which I’ve also added to my portfolio.
    This week SGMO’s deal with BIIB has been going around with praises from it’s long time followers who are biased against CRSP, EDIT and NTLA. I’ve bought a little bit of those because I’ve found many great articles about CRISPER technology in development.

    As Ohad mentioned previously that the selections are so narrow now due to over priced stocks without good indications on many of them,
    suddenly he has stated that Pontifax is now getting into many of these publicly traded companies.

    My first move 2 years ago was to buy all the cheap stocks in his portfolio and then bought the expensive ones after they pulled back significantly in about Jan 2018.
    But being a high tech investor for a lot longer and knowing that valuation would correct March of 2018, I sold almost everything to lock in profits. I bought most of them back as the prices hit bottom according to my target list.
    The bounce was phenomenal and I intend to keep them longer that the 2 years I held them from the Jan crash of 2016 to position for the secular (multi year) growth projection for the High Tech trend.

    Lucky to have had home run winners like AVXS, FMI, ECYT, BOLD etc, I also intend to keep the rest of my biotechs which are harder to predict compared to high techs because of lack of revenue.

    Hoping I land a few that are not to be acquired but becomes successful independently is even a better outcome- to have the main big Biotech companies of the future.

    For now, I’m hoping that Ohad gets back here once in a while for inspiration with comments in general than specific so that he would not be at conflict of interest with pontifax.

    Thank you!

  26. Thanks Ohad for sharing your wisdom with us here. I’ll miss reading all your insights, Your generosity in sharing those insights was always greatly appreciated. I’ll miss you and your blog. Maybe someday you’ll come back to us.

    Best wishes.

  27. Ohad-You will be sorely missed. I wonder if you might consider continuing to write about macro trends for the industry? I have enjoyed the “what it all means” posts as much as the individual stock coverage.

    Ram-could you post your twitter handle?

  28. I’d also appreciate if some people that contributed in this forum posted their twitter handles.

    e.g. the one who made us aware of AXSM p2 MDD data (again I cannot remember, was it you Dan or somebody else?), etc. etc.

    mine is @path1finder

    All the best to everybody!

  29. Dear Ohad!

    It has been great, wonderful to read your post, get your insight, your investment ideas and scientific knowledge. It’s been great to be part of this community of people– reading everybody’s posts, questions, sharing thoughts and idea, and get your answers to our questions…

    Isn’t crazy how time flies?! You said more than ten years? I started following you before you created this blog – I think you were still on seeking alpha… In terms of time passing so quickly, I remember one of your first investment tips on orf-blog was ESPR – and all the ups and down we’ve been through with that stock? some because of the unpredictable regulatory outlook that affected investors’ sentiment and expectations- funny enough, ESPR drugs were approved a few weeks ago. Yeah, but It took several years. What I admire with you is your buy and hold strategy… while i have invested in my of your stock tips,I sometimes (or otfen?) been prone to selling part of my holdings our of fear or insecurity… Considering the general sentiment of the market now, with this coronavirus scare, this is a relevant concern / question for me right now.

    Anyway, I just wanted to say thanks, thanks for sharing, and thanks to everybody else who read this blog and posted here! I will miss it too!

    Hope you will be back soon! All the best innovation happens in the early stages anyway… before companies are listed on the NASDAQ 😉

    Dan

  30. From crisis to crisis..
    Ohad’s portfolio was born in the previous big crisis
    And ended in the current one..
    “When There Is Blood In The Streets – Buy Biotech” Ohad ,October 10, 2008

  31. Dan, folks,

    Bad days ahead. Sold quite a bit of my whole portfolio today as I see further drops ahead. Bought inverse ETF’s QID ($50K) and BIS ($25K) over last few sessions. This is 20% of my holdings but QID will have accelerated effect. Insurance. Good luck to all.

  32. All,

    One suggestion is we could keep the blog alive to share our thoughts, ideas. It’s a lot smarter than Stocktwits:).

  33. Ohad, thank you for using your precious private time to share your knowledge about the biotech world. There is no pump and dump, no front running, no grandiose BS, and no justification when things go wrong (as things inevitable will in biotech). Just cold hard facts. And calculated, smart, risk-adjusted investments that have benefited so many of your readers. Please enjoy your break and frankly, take a lap of victory…you more than deserve it.

  34. as a Swiss guy on the road of info exchange I’ve always appreciated Ohads input. Thanks a lot for all your efforts and your exceptional expertise. Ill miss it.
    All the best
    Rüdi

    Instead of using this platform or stocktwits as suggested, I would like to recommend InvestorVillage as my other preferred US platform

  35. Many thanks Ohad for all the thoughtful analyses and comments! Best of luck to you in all future endeavors!

  36. That’s a real good idea Les…we can keep his blog alive by sharing ideas, unusual trading, help interpret study results. To be honest though,. I have not long any biotech yet because I haven’t found one attractive one enough with enough conviction to buy biotech yet. I have bought spy puts last week when market was up that day and sold for a profit a couple days later. I used part of those profits to buy even lower strike puts on them expecting another downturn. However, few sectors can beat biotech for gains if you can stack the odds in your favor if you know someone who has a science and business background. Anyways, we can keep this blog alive 😃

  37. I just bought some ENLV – Pontifax seems to be an investor.
    They’re developing treatment for sepsis (and cytokine storm) and there are possibilities it may be used in corona virus treatment since one of the causes of death is organ failure and sepsis. They are due p1b results shortly… ph1a were highly positive though a small trial….

    Dan

  38. OHAD… I would like to echo all of the POSITIVE comments that have been made. Your willingness to provide your BLOG with incredibly valuable information is to be commended!!! I only wish that the decision to” take a pause” could be delayed, considering the massive correction that we are currently experiencing. It would seem that there are a fair amount of candidates to add to your portfolio, or at least additional positions to your PORTFOLIO. If you could follow-up I would be very grateful !!!

  39. Hey Richard,
    all the companies they invested in are listed on the pontifax website.
    Dan

  40. Folks, Stay safe… Morgan Stanley indicates they will be $ cost averaging on the dips but I’m thinking there will be lower lows for a while. Biotech is getting really beaten down right now. I’m thinking the indices will decline another 10% so will wait a couple of weeks to start buying back. I cashed out nearly 100% last week – took profits and losses. Plan to buy QLD and some of the biotechs as close to the bottom which I’m hoping to pick. Anyone have any thoughts on timing? Besides Ohad’s portfolio can we put together a list? QURE, ZYME, AXSM, KRTX, APTO, OVID, ….

  41. My list would exclude cos. that will need to replenish their cash in the next year. So companies that are either cash flow positive or have 2 years worth of cash. I like ACAD and VKTX. ACAD has an approved drug that is generating significant sales and there are additional blockbuster indications teed up for FDA approval. VKTX has $270M in cash as of 12/19 and a market cap as of today of $300M. As for timing? I’m going to give it another week. GLTA

  42. Too bad Ohad!
    Your valuable analysis of the biotech field is going to missed us.
    Hopefully we’ll continue to actively work with you and Pontifax.
    All the best

  43. Hi Les,

    I like some with tiny EV (less than about $100m) but product near market, like e.g. FENC, ALBO, MIRM, ALBO

    I like as you mentioned VKTX at basically 0 EV. Also PIRS (more risky) at 0 EV. XENE also not much EV.

    I like companies with high cash and interesting programs like ZYME, MOR, ARNA (all ~ half cash)

    I also like e.g. AMRN, AUPH, AXSM, MDGL,..

    There are steals out there – but nobody knows when the panic of the mass raches its maximum. So I am selectively buying small portions to add to my quite big long-term investments, especially on days when everything goes down a lot (and not on a rebound-day like today)

    Wish you all good decisions

    Christian

  44. Hey Everyone,

    I have bought some XAIR and added to my position in CAPR as they are expanding their exosome platform for use in vaccine – going after c-19 – and bought on an exsomome KOL from Johns Hopkins to the fold – in last Earning call CEO stated they are going to make announcements regarding exosomes as vaccine platform and they are seeking grant funding. Market cap is $4M!

    Dan

  45. One way to avoid conflict is to talk about technologies you like in general. You’ve been incredible asset, I hope you come back. But you have a well-deserved break my friend :-)

  46. CAPR on the move ahead of KOL conference this Thursday…up 40% today
    is anyone else an investor in CAPR?

  47. Hi everyone, I think someone asked the question for other interesting blogs. I joined Integrated BioSci Investing on Seeking Alpha already some time ago. Good content, great community, and very interactive. Give it a try if you are interested.

    Thanks Ohad for everything, I miss you and hope you will come back at one point! I will keep this page open on my computer just in case …

  48. Ohad Readers,
    Can anyone, or collectively as a group, recommend a list of biotechs that meet the following criteria:
    • Good Cash position allowing operations through 2021
    • Phase 2 or 3 studies that are currently enrolled that are unlikely to be interrupted by the Covid-19 situation.
    • Current market value reduction improving future return potential.

    Frank

  49. Frank

    That would be two of Ohads favorites XENE and ZYME. Take the time to read his previous posts.

    As for delays, neither company has made a public announcement as of yet re: trials, but you can expect most trials have hit some sort of delay

  50. Hey all!
    I really appreciate the twitter handles-I have followed Dan I believe. It’s mostly my work account, so I don’t tweet stock picks, but appreciate everyone tweeting.

    Does anyone follow hedge funds? I had a pretty good run following Seth Klarman’s bio picks, but I’d say over the past year or so that’s been less of a focus for his fund. I am thinking of following Perceptive, though their portfolio is enormous. I’m a big fan of buying small caps institutional capital is acquiring, particularly if there is more than one fund on board.

    Anyway I sold about a third of my overall portfolio and am using this as an opportunity to go long on several biotech names. No high-conviction buys, but spreading bets around and will continue to do so.
    L

  51. Alex, AKRO good data for p2a at week 12. Stat sig liver fat reductions across all doses. Absolute: 12-14%, relative 72%. By comparison MDGL had ~40% relative reductions at week 12

  52. certainly good results (anybody recalls by heart how much VKTX had?), though long way ahead of them…

  53. re: strong cash positions, I noticed this page-http://www.biotechduediligence.com/valuation.html

    The following trade close to EV, probably a good jumping off point for further study:
    ACHN, ALNY, AMRN, AVEO, CLVS, IONS, LGND, PTCT, SRPT

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *